According to Khabaronline news agency, US employment rose more than twice as expected, re-inforcing the possibility of an interest rate hike in December. The news hit a market where tech stocks have tumbled and oil traders are simultaneously pricing in the risk of tanker attacks and a return to global supply.
Ekhtazanonline wrote: The markets did not have a single message this week. Falling stocks led buyers to US Treasuries; Hopes of an easing of tensions between Iran and the US moderated a large part of the increase in oil prices, and gold retreated from its peak despite weekly gains.
Today’s jobs report shifted the interest rate equation again in favor of hikers: The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, versus expectations of 65,000; The unemployment rate also decreased from 4.2 to 4.1 percent.
Gold: weekly return under the shadow of the Federal Reserve
The global cash ounce of gold reached about 4071 dollars before the publication of the employment report; 0.4 percent lower than the previous day, but nearly 5 percent higher than the beginning of the week. Reuters attributed the pressure on gold to the volatility of oil and concerns about the persistence of high interest rates. KCM Trade’s Tim Waterer also said that falling stocks could force some investors to sell gold to secure liquidity. These two factors explain why demand for the safe haven asset did not necessarily lead to gold price growth.
Goldman Sachs on November 5 cut its forecast for gold prices at the end of 2026 from $4,650 to $4,150, citing a more hawkish approach by the Federal Reserve.
Oil: Why did the price fall this week despite the threat of war?
Brent reached around 98.60 dollars and US oil reached 91 dollars; respectively 0.3 and 0.5 percent higher than the previous day. This small return does not compensate for the possible weekly drop of about 16% in Brent and 13% in US oil. The hope of easing tensions after the US elections removed part of the price increase caused by the risk of war from oil, but attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf still prevented further price declines.
The issue is not just about diplomacy. In an estimate reported by Reuters today, JPMorgan believes that global supply exceeded consumption by 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million barrels in October. Goldman Sachs also estimates that the global oil inventory in these two months, unlike the first months of the war, has not decreased and the market has almost reached balance.
Silver and copper: interest rate pressure and uncertainty in industrial demand
Silver fell 0.6 percent to $51.42 an ounce ahead of the jobs report, though it was still up on a weekly basis. Copper also decreased by 0.2% and was in the range of $13,790 per ton. The pressure on silver was greater than the expected path of interest rates; In copper, concerns about slowing construction of data centers and demand for electrical equipment fueled industrial metal sales.
US stocks; The question of artificial intelligence cost effectiveness
On Thursday, November 5, the S&P 500 closed down 4.36 percent at 7353.73 and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 5.52 percent at 24,315. Investors are skeptical about the returns on heavy AI investments and the effect of possible increased oversight on data center construction. Nasdaq 100 futures pared some of the losses ahead of Friday’s open, but S&P 500 futures lost some of their early gains after a strong employment report; The Friday cash market has not yet closed.
Dollar index, currency pairs and bonds
The dollar index strengthened to the range of 102.1 and the euro retreated to around 1.115 dollars. The dollar was also traded around 158.45 yen; The rise of USD/JPY means the weakening of the yen against the dollar. Before the employment statistics, Reuters considered the demand for dollar liquidity in the course of falling stocks as a factor supporting the dollar; The strong employment report added another factor to the increase in interest rate expectations.
In bonds, falling stocks first created buying demand and pushed yields down. After the employment statistics, the yield of two-year bonds increased by 6 basis points and reached 4.53%. That reversal suggests the market is caught between two forces: concerns that tech companies’ growth will be hurt, and concerns that a resilient economy will give the Federal Reserve an opportunity to raise interest rates again.
interest rate; December has not yet been decided
The possibility of an increase of 25 basis points in the interest rate in the meeting of December 8 and 9 was strengthened in the first reaction of futures to the employment report. Now the market considers interest rate increase as the most likely scenario.
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