According to the online report of Farhihitgan newspaper, he wrote: One of the places where you can trace the rejection of these pressures is the statistics of returned checks. An index that alone cannot provide a complete picture of the economic situation, but its changes can be signs of the state of exchanges and the ability to pay financial obligations, and even signs of prosperity and recession in the economy.
The analysis of the statistics of returned checks from January 1403 to August 1405 shows that the ratio of the number and amount of returned checks increased simultaneously with the two wars of 12 days and 40 days of Ramadan, but this increase was somewhat moderated in the following months. In other words, the shocks caused by the war can be seen in the statistics of checks, but the data do not show that these shocks have led to a continuous increase in the proportion of bounced checks in all the following months.
After the 12-day war, the ratio of returned checks, which reached 14.5% in July 1404, decreased to 8.7% in November; The ratio of the amount of returned checks also increased from the peak of 22.6% in July 1404 to 13.1% in October last year. In 1405, after recording higher ratios in April, both indices decreased in May and June. After the 40-day Ramadan war, the ratio of the number of returned checks increased in July and August, but the ratio of the amount decreased slightly in August. This trend shows that after temporary jumps, the ratio of returned checks has returned to lower ranges; However, the record-breaking nominal amount of returned checks in August 1405 reminds us that we cannot speak of a complete return of all aspects of economic exchanges to pre-war conditions.
The equation of war in the statistics of the number and amount of returned checks
The ratio of the number of returned checks to exchanged checks in the last three months of 1403 had a relatively stable trend and was in the range of 9.4 to 10.3 percent. This ratio decreased to 9.1% in April 1404, but in the following months, it increased and reached 11.7% in June, at the same time as the 12-day war. This trend became more intense in July, the first month after the war, and the ratio of returned checks increased by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and reached 14.5%. Although this index decreased in the following months and reached 8.7% in November, it increased again in the last months of the year and ended March with a ratio of 14.1%.
In 1405, the ratio of the number of returned checks in April reached 16.9%, which is the highest rate in the entire period under review. After that, this index decreased in May and June and reached 10.5%, but it increased again in the months after the 40-day Ramadan war; So that the ratio of the number of returned checks reached 12% in July and 12.4% in August. Accordingly, while after the 12-day war, a significant jump in the number of bounced checks was observed, in the post-Ramadan war period, this index once again took an upward path, although it has not yet reached the peak recorded in April.
The ratio of the amount of returned checks to the total amount of exchanged checks has been associated with significant fluctuations in the same period. This ratio was 14.3 and 14.1 percent in January and February 1403, respectively, and reached 15.4 percent in March. In April 1404, it decreased to 13.8%, but in May and June, it increased and reached 14.4% and 16.7%, respectively. With the outbreak of the 12-day war, this trend intensified in July, and the ratio of returned checks increased by 5.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching 22.6%; The highest amount recorded in the entire period under review.
This ratio decreased to 18.9 and 18.3 percent in August and September, respectively, and reached 13.1 percent in October. However, it increased again in the last months of the year and reached 17.4% in March. In 1405, the percentage of returned checks reached 20.3% in April, but it decreased to 13.1% and 12% in April and June, respectively. After the 40-day Ramadan war, this index increased to 14.6% in July, but unlike the ratio of the number of bounced checks, it slightly decreased in August and reached 14.1%. The comparison of the two indicators shows that in many months, the share of the amount of returned checks from the total transactions was higher than the share of their number; For example, in July 1404, against the return of 14.5% of checks in terms of number, the share of the amount of returned checks reached 22.6%. This difference shows that the average amount of returned checks in that month was higher than the average amount of all exchanged checks and shows the importance of checking the number and value of returned checks at the same time.
Gradual return of check returns to pre-war levels
Examining the amount of bounced checks from January 1403 to August 1405 shows that the rial value of bounced checks has been increasing in this period, despite monthly fluctuations. The amount of returned checks, which was 130 and 129 thousand billion tomans in January and February 1403, respectively, reached 171 thousand billion tomans in March. In April 1404, this figure decreased to 88 thousand billion tomans, but in the next two months it increased again and reached 141 thousand billion tomans in June. With the occurrence of the 12-day war in June 1404, one of the most important changes of this index took place in July of the same year; So that the amount of returned checks reached 207 thousand billion tomans with an increase of about 47% compared to June. This jump in the first month after the war can be a sign of intensifying pressure on credit exchanges and financial obligations following the unstable economic conditions and disruptions caused by the war.
Although the amount of returned checks decreased to 171 thousand billion tomans in August, it reached 195 thousand billion tomans again in September. In this way, the possible effects of the shock caused by the war can be traced in the significant increase in the amount of returned checks in the month immediately after and the continuation of the fluctuations of this index in the following months.
In the last months of 1404, the amount of returned checks was still at high levels. This figure decreased to 146 thousand billion tomans in October, but reached 174 and 204 thousand billion tomans in November and December, respectively. In January, 207 thousand billion tomans of checks were returned, and this figure reached the highest level of the year in February with the registration of 221 thousand billion tomans. In March, the amount of returned checks was 189 thousand billion tomans. In 1405, this index reached 180 thousand billion tomans in April and increased to 201 thousand billion tomans in May and decreased to 165 thousand billion tomans in June. With the beginning of the 40-day Ramadan war, it becomes more important to examine the trend of this index in the months of the war and after. In July, i.e. the month after the war period, the amount of returned checks reached 197 thousand billion tomans and in August with a further increase, it recorded the figure of 231 thousand billion tomans; This figure is the highest in the entire period under review.
The comparison of August 1405 with August of the previous year also indicates a 35% increase in the amount of returned checks, so in addition to the 47% jump in July 1404 after the 12-day war, the increase in the amount of returned checks in the months after the 40-day Ramadan war is also significant. Of course, in order to separate the effect of war from other factors, inflation, the change in the volume of checks and the activity status of economic enterprises should also be included in the analysis. The important point is that considering the fixed price of March 1404, the real value of returned checks this year will be between 150 and 170 hemats, which compared to the figures of more than 200 hemats last year, the real value of returned checks has decreased.
Finally, what is obtained by putting these figures together is a picture of the relative return of Czech exchanges to the situation before the war shocks; It is as if after each spike, some of the initial pressure subsided and the checkback ratio returned to lower ranges. However, this return does not mean the disappearance of all the effects of uncertainty or the definitive improvement of the financial situation of companies.
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