Niloufer Moulai: Although the country is in a state of war and naval blockade by the United States, the increase in prices has caused criticism of the government’s economic performance. Some believe that the cause of high prices is related to the performance of the government, while others identify the war as the reason for the increase in prices and give an acceptable score to the performance of the government.
In this regard, Nasser Imani, fundamentalist political activistIn an interview with Khabar Online news agency, he said: “When we talk about sanctions and war, mainly currency issues are raised; But at the same time, until the end of 1403, even though the country’s foreign exchange earnings were more than our foreign exchange needs, we still experienced severe inflation, liquidity growth, unemployment, and price increases. This is a small sign in response to that.”
He continued: “Many economists believe that a small part of our economic problems is related to war and embargo issues, and maybe the share of these factors is not more than 20 to 30 percent. Most of the problems go back to the management system of the country’s domestic economy.”
This principled political activist also noted about the change of the economic team of the 14th government: “The change of the economic team of the government will be effective when people with a different view on the economy come to work and at the same time, have a serious determination to deal with the influential economic currents inside the country; Currents that have influence in the country’s decision-making system. “Until this happens, no problem will be solved.”
He also said about the reduction of prices after the war: “Basically, this perception among the general public is a wrong perception. Just think that we won the war, America withdrew and the sanctions were lifted, the general public thinks that starting tomorrow morning the price of the dollar, which is now, for example, 270 thousand tomans, will reach 50 thousand tomans, or that the oil they buy for 1 million tomans today will decrease to 200 thousand tomans. There is no such thing at all and this notion is wrong.”
You can read the detailed interview of Nasser Imani, a fundamentalist political activist, in Khabaronline news agency;
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* Regarding the economic situation of the country and the complaints that people currently have towards the government, different views are raised. Some believe that the government does not pay enough attention to the problems, and others consider issues such as embargo, siege and war conditions in evaluating the government’s performance. What is your assessment of the government’s performance?
Due to the fact that we are in a state of war, we have limited expression about the performance of the government. In war conditions, one cannot criticize the government and its performance, especially the economic performance. You assume that tomorrow all military conflicts and wars will end. This is an assumption, and in such a situation, how much of our current economic problems will be solved and how much will remain? This means that this issue is related to domestic issues and has nothing to do with war, embargo, oil, currency and similar issues.
This is an independent discussion and if we want to talk about it in detail, we need a two-hour forum. But if I want to answer it very briefly and in one sentence, we have to answer the question that until almost a year ago, despite all the sanctions, our foreign exchange income was almost as much as the country’s foreign exchange needs for imports. According to the statistics of the customs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, until the end of 1403, our foreign currency income was more than our need for foreign currency.
When we talk about embargo and war, mainly currency issues are raised; But at the same time, until the end of 1403, even though the country’s foreign exchange earnings were more than our foreign exchange needs, we still experienced severe inflation, liquidity growth, unemployment, and price increases. This is a small sign in response to that. Many economists believe that a small part of our economic problems is related to the issues of war and embargo, and maybe the contribution of these factors is not more than 20 to 30 percent. Most of the problems are related to the management system of the country’s domestic economy.
If this management system is not reformed, that is, as long as the country’s banking system remains as it is now and as long as the way of looking at the value of the national currency does not change, even if the war ends tomorrow, the problems of inflation and rising prices will only decrease somewhat, but will never approach zero. Therefore, I would like to say that our main problem is economic management problems inside the country. Because it is the time of war, the public opinion of the people thinks that if the war ends tomorrow morning, the prices of goods will not only increase, but the prices will return to 5 years ago, inflation will be zero and unemployment will disappear completely. While this is not the case at all, and this is also the opinion of the majority of the country’s economists.
The central bank officially adds a thousand or 1500 tomans to the currency price every day
At that time, when there were no wars and military conflicts and our foreign exchange income was good, we had the problems of inflation and liquidity growth and price increases, and a major part of these problems comes back to the country’s economic management.
For example, we now have the amount of available currency that the central bank provides to importers to spend on the import of raw materials for factories, machinery and basic goods. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has been increasing the exchange rate daily; This means that the central bank officially adds 1,500 tomans to the currency price every day. That is, it reduces the value of the national currency, and the result of this action is inflation and high prices, and this issue is quite clear.
Why are we looking for very complicated factors for inflation, price increases and high prices? When the government itself raises the currency price daily, the result is clear. For example, if you compare the currency price in the past two weeks with today, you will see that the currency that was 180 thousand tomans two weeks ago has reached 190 thousand tomans today. This increase of 10,000 Tomans within two to three weeks has a clear meaning and the result is an increase in prices and inflation.
On the other hand, look at the state of the banking system and the disharmony of the many banks that exist in the country. What action have the government, i.e. the central bank and the set of relevant institutions, taken regarding the non-aligned banks that generate a lot of liquidity and increase the country’s monetary base? No effective action is taken.
Why are we looking for a thief? The thief is right here in our house
* What should be done in such a situation? Especially since there is a kind of disappointment among people…
This frustration has arisen from these issues. Finally, lowering the value of the national currency in war conditions is a very wrong action. This is an issue that both the martyred leader and the current leadership have emphasized several times; But the central bank is doing its job and the result is an increase in prices.
Russia attacked Ukraine more than 4 years ago and this war is still going on. A war that is much heavier than the wars we have experienced in the last two or three years. The number of people killed in this war in the last four years, according to official statistics, is about one million people, and there are also unofficial statistics. The infrastructures of both Russia and Ukraine such as refineries, oil sources and other infrastructures are being destroyed on a daily basis and this war is very intense. Check how the value of the Russian ruble has changed against the dollar.
I have looked into this. The value of the Russian currency has decreased by about 13% since before the war. On the other hand, the value of our national currency has decreased by more than 300% during the last two years, not because of the free dollar market, but because of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran itself.
The result of these measures is inflation. Why are we looking for a thief? The thief is right here in our house. The result of these conditions is inflation, high prices and people’s dissatisfaction. This situation is caused by our own actions and has nothing to do with sanctions. The public perception of the negotiation and the end of the war is not correct. Some people think that if a negotiation is held, we win the war, America withdraws and all sanctions on Iran are lifted, all problems will be solved from tomorrow.
The idea that if the war ends, the dollar will reach 50 thousand tomans is wrong
* If there is a negotiation or an agreement with America, won’t it have an effect?
In general, this is a misconception among the general public. Just think that we won the war, America withdrew and the sanctions were lifted, the general public thinks that starting tomorrow morning the price of the dollar, which is now, for example, 270 thousand tomans, will reach 50 thousand tomans, or that the oil they buy for 1 million tomans today will decrease to 200 thousand tomans. There is no such thing at all and this notion is wrong.
The end of the war definitely brings peace and comfort, removes insecurity and increases hope for the economic future; But if we imagine that with this economic management system of the country, paradise will be created immediately, it is not like that at all.
I gave you an example and told how the country’s inflation and liquidity growth was before June last year and before the invasion of the Zionist regime, when there was still no war. These are concrete examples and I am not speaking based on guesswork. There are statistics. A year and a half ago, when there was no war, what was our inflation rate and how much is it now?
Even today, when the price and inflation have increased, can we imagine that the main cause is the US naval blockade? No; Most of the problems are related to the domestic economic system of the country.
Changing the economic team of the government will be effective when people with a different view of the economy come to work
* Can changing the government’s economic team help reduce inflation or, for example, lower prices?
The main issue is the type of look. What official is going to work? If another official from the economic team comes to work with the same view as before and believes that there is nothing wrong with the devaluation of the country’s national currency and that we must compensate the government’s budget deficit, as long as this view exists, even if you change 10 economic teams, nothing will happen.
Nothing will happen until a new team comes to work that does not want to deal with the oligarchy system that has a stranglehold on the country’s economy.
Changing the economic team of the government will be effective when people with a different view of the economy come to work and at the same time, have a serious determination to deal with the economic influence flows inside the country; Currents that have influence in the country’s decision-making system. Until this happens, no problem will be solved.
Recent claims about trusts are true
* Recently, there have been revelations about trustees and people who received the currency from the sale, but did not return the money to the country. Of course, there are still doubts and questions about these claims. Can it be said that these trusts have had an effect in increasing the price and decreasing the value of the national currency?
Of course, the recent statements made about trustees are true, and the issue is even a little beyond what has been said. That is, the dimensions of this problem are more than these words. At least the judiciary is dealing with this issue, and when there is no issue, the judiciary does not deal with people, and when it deals with documents and evidence, it shows that there is such an issue.
Therefore, this issue is real and its dimensions are very wide. What was the cause of these events, since I say that we are in a state of war, I cannot talk about many issues and I will not go into the causes for now.
But it is natural that such an event is influential. When the country’s total foreign exchange needs for the import of goods during a year is about 60 billion dollars; That is, the country needs about 60 to 65 billion dollars of foreign currency to provide medicine, basic goods, raw materials for factories, machinery and other things. Once you see a figure equivalent to this amount or even more than that, based on some information, received by the trustees, but the currency has not returned to the country.
It means that these people had currency as much as the country’s foreign currency budget for one year, or at least six months of the country’s foreign currency budget, and they did not return it to the country. It is clear that this issue has a huge impact. The discussion is not about a small and minor figure. When the currency equivalent to the country’s foreign currency budget of one year or even six months is provided to these people, it is a very heavy issue and unfortunately this happened. Regarding the reason for this happening, I emphasize again that because we are in a state of war, I cannot talk about many issues.
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